GIS - January 04, 2012: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by around 4.0% in 2012, slightly lower than the 4.1% registered in 2011, according to the latest figures released by the Statistics Mauritius in its December 2011 issue of the Economic Indicators. Taking into consideration measures announced in the last budget and economic situation in the main markets, growth rate, exclusive of sugar, is forecasted to be 3.9% in 2012 compared to 4.2% in 2011.
The forecast is based on the following assumptions:
- Sugarcane: sugar production of 450,000 tonnes of refined and special sugars, resulting in growth of 4.4% compared to 0.6% in 2011;
- Manufacturing Industries: to expand by 1.5% compared to 3.5% in 2011;
- Construction: to grow by 3.5% after the decline of 1.8% in 2011 driven by public sector investment (road infrastructure, low cost housing and other public buildings such as prison, airport, etc) as announced in the last budget;
- Hotels and restaurants: a growth of around 3.0% based on a forecast of 1,010,000 tourist arrivals in 2012 compared to 980,000 in 2011. Tourist earnings are forecasted at Rs 44.5 billion in 2012 against Rs 42.5 billion in 2011;
- Transport, storage and communications: to grow by 5.5%, same as the rate of 2011;
- Financial intermediation: to grow at a lower rate of 4.7%, compared to 5.5% growth in 2011; and
- Business activities: to grow by 8.8% compared to 9.0% in 2011.
In 2011, GDP grew by 4.1% same as forecasted in September 2011. Exclusive of sugar, the rate works out to 4.2% compared to 4.4% in 2010.
As reported by Statistics Mauritius, investment recorded a stagnation in 2011 after a decline of 0.7% in 2010. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessels, no growth was registered compared to the 3.7% growth in 2010. Private sector investment declined by 0.5% in 2011 after a stagnation in 2010 whilst Public sector investment recovered slightly by 0.6% after the contraction of 2.8% in 2010. The investment growth rate was 0.6% compared to 18.9% in 2010, excluding aircraft and marine vessels. The 0.6% growth registered in 2011 is mainly due to investment in road infrastructure, airport and low cost housing.
Figures further show that final consumption expenditure of households and government grew by 2.7%, same as in 2010. Saving rate was 15.4%, slightly lower than that of 15.5% in 2010.