GIS - Jan 04, 2013: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow to reach around 3.7% in 2013, higher than the 3.3% estimated for 2012, says Statistics Mauritius in its December 2012 issue of the Economic Indicators. Taking into account measures announced in the last budget and the performance of the key economic sectors, combined with the economic situation, growth rate, exclusive of sugar, is forecasted to be 3.7% in 2013 compared to 3.4% in 2012.
The forecast is based on the following assumptions:
Sugarcane: sugar production of 400,000 tonnes of refined and special sugars, resulting in a negative growth of 3.0% compared to 7.0% in 2012;
Manufacturing Industries sector is expected to expand by around 2.0%, slightly higher than the 1.9% growth of 2012. Within that sector, food processing will grow by 2.2% taking into account a new fish processing plant operational in 2013 and textile and manufacturing will grow at a higher rate of 2.0%, assuming some recovery in our main markets and diversification of markets, compared to no growth in 2012;
Construction will decline further by 2.0% after the contraction of 2.9% in 2012 based on historical implementation capacity of public projects and a drop in private construction projects;
Accommodation and food service activities will register a growth of around 3.5% based on tourist arrivals forecasted at 1 million in 2013, after stagnating in 2012; and
Financial and insurance activities to grow by 5.5%, same as in 2012.
According to the December issue of the Economic Indicators, a recovery in the global economy coupled with full implementation of budget measures, more specifically those related to public infrastructure projects, may result in a higher GDP growth of 3.9% in 2013.
For the year 2012, GDP growth rate is projected at 3.3% lower than the 3.5% growth registered in 2011, of which the main contributors are: financial and insurance activities, information and communication, wholesale & retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles and manufacturing. Exclusive of sugar, the growth rate in 2012 would be 3.4% against 3.5% in 2011.
As reported by Statistics Mauritius, total investment for 2012 is expected to drop by 1.8%, following a growth of 1.4% in 2011. While Public investment would rebound by 2.3% after a contraction of 4.7% in 2011, private sector investment would decline by 3.7% compared to the growth of 3.4% in 2011. The saving rate would reach 15.1% in 2012, slightly higher than the 15.0 % rate of 2011.