GIS - October 24, 2012: The number of named storms evolving in the South West Indian Ocean basin for the 2012-2013 summer season is likely to be about 10, with a probability of a second named storm by the end of November 2012. The region between Agaléga and Diego Garcia seems to be more conducive to storm formation, says the Meteorological Services.
According to the Summer 2012-2013-Seasonal Outlook published on 22 October all named storms that will develop in the South Indian Ocean will not necessarily be a direct threat to the islands of the Republic of Mauritius. At least one storm may pass within 100 km of either Mauritius or Rodrigues causing cyclonic conditions.
The seasonal climate prediction outlines that summer 2012-2013 will be slightly warmer than usual. On certain days, it is likely that temperatures will exceed the normal monthly average by more than two degrees Celsius in some locations. Maximum temperatures may reach 35o in Port Louis and in some coastal areas during afternoons of peak summer months. In Rodrigues, maximum temperatures are likely to reach 33o along coastal areas on certain occasions.
Atmospheric conditions will become conducive to the occurrence of extreme weather events such as torrential rains and strong winds during the period January to March 2013. Heavy summer rains may trigger occasional localised flash floods during this period. Cumulative summer rainfall is expected to be near normal with an average of about 1350 mm over Mauritius and around 650 mm over Rodrigues.