GIS - 13 August, 2018: Rainfall is expected to be below normal during August and close to normal in September and October. Consequently, accumulated rainfall over Mauritius for winter 2018 is likely to be slightly below normal with a total amount of 575 mm for the period May to October 2018.
These weather forecasts for the second half of winter 2018 were highlighted in the updated Winter 2018 Seasonal Outlook prepared by the Mauritius Meteorological Services. It indicates that over the last couple of months, El Nino Southern Oscillation was neutral while other oceanic and atmospheric parameters have changed slightly.
The Winter Outlook also states that the Central Plateau, the eastern and southern slopes are likely to be wetter than the other regions. As for Rodrigues, near normal rainfall is expected in August and September, and slightly below in October. Overall during winter 2018 normal rainfall is expected over Rodrigues, amounting to 350 mm.
Day and night temperature is likely to be slightly above normal, both in Mauritius and Rodrigues. It also announces the possibility of cold spells setting in for a few days, especially in August and that minimum temperature may drop to 12 degrees Celsius in Mauritius and around 14 degrees Celsius in Rodrigues during the remaining winter months.
First half Winter 2018
Moreover, the report highlights that during the first half of winter 2018, temperature at the beginning of the winter season over Mauritius and Rodrigues was above normal with cooler conditions prevailing at the end of June and during the month of July. In Mauritius, rainfall was below normal during May and normal in June and slightly above in July. Rainfall over Rodrigues was below normal in May and above normal in June and July.
Features of winter weather
According to the Winter 2018 Outlook, winter months in Mauritius and Rodrigues are windier than in summer. It is likely that the trade wind, mainly from the East South East, will blow at an average speed of 20 to 30 km/h. It is also expected that occasionally, the passage of strong anticyclones to the south of the Indian Ocean may strengthen the wind over the Mascarenes.
The Outlook also evokes the possibility of the sea to become very rough with heavy swells generated by the combined effect of deep travelling lows and strong anticyclones to the south of the Mascarenes on some occasions. The breaking waves are likely to reach the southern and western shores of Mauritius and Rodrigues and cause temporary inundation of low lying areas.
It is also indicated that there is the possibility of having extreme weather events including high intensity rainfall and large variation in temperature are very likely to occur occasionally over Mauritius and Rodrigues, in line with the findings of the fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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